🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.